| China's Timber Market Bright for Second Half of
2002 Generally speaking the timber market mainly remained stable in the first half
of this year but demand varied greatly between regions because of differences in economic
development levels.
Deforestation in the major forest regions of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia has
been effectively controlled through implementation of the NFPP. The decline in domestic
harvest resulted in an increase in market price for timber. Hardwoods such as Lime, Oak,
Birch, Chinese catalpa have been selling well. The demand was also strong for traditional
Korean pine, White pine and Larch.
Timber prices have risen across the board and the future prospects in the market are
looking bright according to local analysts for the following reasons:
- Deforestation has been effectively controlled;
- The development of wood processing industry is now developing in tandem with the needs
of market;
- Improvements in road and railway transportation have aided timber marketing.
Although market demand in the southern-forested regions is for large diameter Pine and
China fir, it will be some time yet until timber production reaches its forecast peak.
Generally speaking there was no strongly rising demand for timber in the first half of
2002 and the buyer's market was maintained, especially for imported timber market. In fact
log imports totaled more than 10 million cubic metres in the first five months of the
year, up 53% year on year.
Most local analysts in the timber sector have an optimistic attitude view on the domestic
timber market for the second half of 2002. Their arguments are as follows:
It is widely felt that the Chinese economy, because of increased construction activity,
will grow faster in the third and fourth quarters and as a result demand for timber must
rebound.
Work on the four major national strategic projects such as electricity and gas
transmission from the west to the east, the water diversion project from the south to the
north, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and the Western Development programme will drive up
demand from the construction sector. Also the start of building projects for 2008 Olympic
Games will drive up consumption.
In addition, many new projects will start in Beijing, Tianjin and Qingdao City, which
will together lift demand for timber.
The domestic real estate industry is growing fast and large quantities of imported
medium and high quality hardwood timber are expected to be used during the autumn for
construction and indoor decoration. The total value of timber consumption in the
decorative sector alone could be RMB 300 billion this year.
Finally, house building in rural areas after the autumn harvest is expected to increase
and this will impact demand for timber products.
Timber Market Price Climbing in Henan
Henan Province is located in inland China where economic development has been slower
than in the coastal areas and timber consumption trends are less developed. But recently
timber markets in Henan Province have been booming, especially in the second quarter and
price levels have rocketed up. Domestic timbers and timber from Russia is now used
extensively for construction in the provincial capital.
In Zhengzhou City, for example, the market price of Korean Pine logs (length 6 m, diameter
30 cm plus) have increased by RMB 80 yuan per cubic metre in the space of a few months.
The market price of large-diameter Larch log is nearly RMB 1,000 yuan per cubic metre
while the market price of White pine sawnwood (length 4 m thickness 6 cm) is around RMB
1,130 yuan per cubic metre.
The market price of Ash sawnwood is currently RMB 1,300, which is about RMB 50 yuan per
cubic metre higher than that at the beginning of this year, an increase of 16%. Timber
prices are rising steadily as the supply of some popular timbers falls short of demand and
stocks decline.
Local analysts point to two main reasons for the booming timber prices in Henan
Province. First of all, demand for timber is increasing fast because of implementation of
national development plans (Middle and Western Development Plan) and the Four Major
Strategic Projects close to Henan Province. Secondly, it is very expensive to transport
timber to Henan Province so timber prices are high. It is expected that timber demand in
Henan Province will continue to grow into the second half of 2002.
Russian Timber Exports to fall, Prices to go up
According to local analysts, timber exports from Russia to China will likely decline in
the near future and prices will probably increase in the second half of 2002. The reasons
for the decline in availability include the shortened logging season in Russia because of
the warm winter and early spring.
Also, China has been enforcing its quarantine policy on imported timber from July 1,
2001. Imported logs must now be chemically treated or should be debarked. Currently Russia
reportedly cannot satisfy the Chinese quarantine requirements. The Quarantine agencies in
China and Russia are working to resolve this issue but if China is not prepared to
compromise its regulations Russian suppliers have stopped exports.
Additionally, illegal logging in Russian forests is said by Russian authorities to be a
very serious problem. Much of the illegal logged timber is reportedly exported and Russian
authorities are now cracking down on illegal logging activities.
The evidence for the forecast price rise is based on evidence of a decline in
availability in the first four months of this year of Russian timber. Also Russia has
recently increased rail freight rates by 14% so the costs of exports will go up. Finally,
many Chinese companies entered the import business and resultant the disorderly market
development has disrupted the market. With so many buyers in the market prices have
naturally risen. |
