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Report from
Europe
Iran-US conflict hits European economic prospects
European markets reacted positively to the announcement
of a two-week ceasefire in the Iran-US conflict and
Pakistan mediated peace talks. In response, on 8 April, the
UK FTSE rose 3.8%, the CAC 40 in Paris 3.4%, while
Frankfurt's DAX 40 went up 4.8%. But commentators say
the war to date has already had serious economic impacts
in the EU and UK and predict lower growth, interest rates
rises and ongoing subdued consumer confidence.
Analysts say that Europe’s dependence on supplies of oil
and Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) from and via the Middle
East, both of which have been significantly disrupted by
the conflict, left it particularly vulnerable.“The economic
toll of the Iran war has hit home in Europe, where more
muted growth and faster inflation risk deepening
industrial, fiscal and political pressures across the region,”
states a report from Bloomberg.
“[It] is prompting countries to slash expectations for
output while bracing for an energy-driven upswing in
prices.”
According to Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel,
Europe’s most pronounced vulnerability remains LNG.
The consequence of ongoing constraints on LNG transport
via the Strait of Hormuz plus processing infrastructure
damage, it says, is tighter global spot availability and at
the same time Europe being forced to compete with Asian
buyers for flexible cargoes on the spot market –
‘something seen during the 2021-2023 energy crisis’.
It is also predicted that consumer confidence is unlikely to
improve until the ceasefire is made permanent and will
only recover slowly after that. European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of
the European Commission reported on March 23 that the
consumer confidence indicator (CCI) for the EU declined
by 3.4 percentage points EU versus February and by 4.0
percentage points in the euro area..
UK-based trading provider IG Group cautioned that
investors should resist the temptation to treat the ceasefire
as an ‘all-clear signal’ and that ‘structural constraints will
limit the extent of any recovery’.
“Even with the easing in geopolitical tensions, investors
continue to focus on the economic damage already
inflicted by the recent surge in energy prices and
heightened uncertainty,” said Currency.”
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence, commented; “The
encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have
been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked
supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed
downturn in demand.”
UK and European markets have cut their forecasts for
interest rate rises following the ceasefire, but the Bank of
England is still expected to introduce one increase this
year, according to reports, and the European Central Bank
two.
See: https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/how-will-iran-conflict-
hit-european-energy-markets
https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/05/iran-war-how-
exposed-are-european-economies
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-
regulation/one-battle-after-another-iran-war-deals-new-blow-
europes-industrial-heartland-2026-03-23/
https://theconversation.com/iran-oil-shock-the-eu-has-very-few-
options-to-limit-the-wars-economic-impact-and-prevent-a-
recession-277992
Spanish trade barometer reflects ‘moderately positive’
outlook
A trade barometer survey presented at the AEIM Spanish
Timber Trade and Industry General Assembly reflected
the sector’s positive outlook. The GA took place on
March.
During the meeting, the results of the timber and wood
products sector barometer were discussed. Based on a
survey of member companies, the data points to a
‘moderately positive outlook for 2026, with expectations
of growth in activity and a clear willingness among
companies to continue investing’, reports AEIM.
Most companies in the sector anticipate ‘favourable
performance’ this year, with more than half of surveyed
respondents expecting sales to increase. A significant
proportion also believe the market will remain at levels
similar to last year.
The barometer also shows companies set to continue
capital spending in 2026. Survey respondents said they are
planning investments in machinery, facility expansion,
process digitization, and product diversification. This,
states AEIM, ‘confirms the sector's commitment to
continued modernization, innovation, and
competitiveness’.
At the Assembly, AEIM’s activity plan for 2026 was
approved by members laying out its main lines of work for
the year ahead.
Priorities include strengthening information and advice for
member companies, monitoring key regulatory
developments affecting the sector in Spain and the EU,
promoting member companies, and expanding the
association's membership base.
The 2026 work plan also includes monitoring various
regulatory issues. Among these are the evolution of CITES
regulations and the inclusion of new wood species in
Appendix II, proposals on new formaldehyde exposure
limits and various antidumping proceedings initiated by
the EU on wood products.
See - https://www.aeim.org/index.php/2026/03/12/perspectivas-
favorables-aeim/
Dutch companies trial EUDR process
At the General Meeting of the Netherlands Timber Trade
Association (VVNH), it was announced that the
Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority
(NVWA) is organising dry runs for timber companies on
the operation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)
. The VVNH is now looking volunteers to take part.
VVNH describes the exercise an opportunity to learn how
the NVWA, the EUDR Competent Authority, handles
audits. It will give participants the chance to receive
targeted information and question the NVWA. The VVNH
says it can use the findings to develop a ‘better and clearer
action plan’ for members.
The EUDR is set to come into force for large and medium-
sized EU operators on December 30, 2026, and on June
30, 2027, for small and micro operators.
See - https://www.vvnh.nl/vvnh-nieuwsbrief-maart-2026-0
and
https://english.nvwa.nl/
and
https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/reg
ulation-deforestation-free-products_en
Selva Maya timber focus of European market webinar
A webinar for European buyers interested in tropical
hardwood species from the Selva Maya forest of Mexico
and Guatemala which took place in early March is
available online.
The event was organised by sustainable tropical timber
and forest advisors and analysts Stichting Probos, Mexican
sustainable strategies consultancy Minkadev and
Rainforest Alliance, with the support of the International
Tropical Timber Technical Association (ATIBT). It
attracted more than 40 participants from across Europe
and from Latin America.
Titled "Connecting Selva Maya timber producers with the
European market", it was organised within the framework
of the Madera Cero Deforestación (Zero Deforestation
Wood) project funded by the EU’s AL-INVEST Verde
programme.
The webinar includes information from established
community forest enterprises and their value chain
partners working on EUDR-aligned and FSC-certified
timber production in Mexico and Guatemala.
It covers species and products available from the Selva
Maya (the America’s second largest tropical rain forest)
and also how responsible and ethical sourcing impacts the
[region] and the livelihoods of its guardians’.
See - https://www.atibt.org/en/news/13811/webinar-tropical-
timber-from-the-selva-maya-eudr-ready-community-managed
Antwerp is venue for International Hardwood
Conference
Fedustria, the Belgian federation of the textile, wood and
furniture industry will host the 2026 International
Hardwood Conference in Antwerp.
Co-organised by the ETTF and the European Organisation
of the Sawmill Industry (EOS), the IHC, billed by
Fedustria as one of the most lead events of the
international timber sector calendar, takes place from
November 5-6.
See:https://www.fedustria.be/
Carrefour International du Bois registration open
The Carrefour International du Bois timber trade fair
takes place this year in Nantes from June 2-4. Held in the
French city’s Parc Beaujoire exhibition complex, the
biennial show attracts exhibitors and visitors from around
the world.
“CIB continues to attract a global audience from across
Europe, North Africa the Americas and more,” said CIB
Commercial and International Business
Manager Samantha Padden. “Top countries in terms of
visitors included Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy,
Brazil, Germany and the UK.”
See: https://www.timbershow.com/visiter/
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