US Dollar Exchange Rates of
10th
May
2026
China Yuan 6.80
Report from China
Decline in log imports
China Customs has reported log imports in the first quarter
of 2026 totalled 7.16 million cubic metres valued at
US$1.169 billion, down 11% in volume and down 14% in
value compared to the first quarter of 2025. The average
price for imported logs was US$163 (CIF) per cubic
metre, down 3% from the same period of 2025.
Of total log imports, softwood log imports dropped 11% to
5.17 million cubic metres, accounting for 72% of the
national total. The average price for imported softwood
logs declined 4% to US$122 (CIF) per cubic metre over
the same period of 2025.
Hardwood log imports fell 13% to 1.99 million cubic
metres and accounted for 28% of the national total. The
average price for imported hardwood logs dropped slightly
to US$270 (CIF) per cubic metre over the same period of
2025.
Of total hardwood log imports, tropical log imports were
1.06 million cubic metres valued at US$262 million CIF,
down 13% both in volume and value from the same period
of 2025 and accounted for 15% of the national total log
import volume.
The average price for imported tropical logs was US$246
CIF per cubic metre, down just 0.2% from the same period
of 2025.
The main reasons for the decline in log imports in the first
quarter of 2026 were said to be:
Downstream demand remains persistently sluggish
New construction in the real estate sector was weak. The
slow construction industry has driven a significant decline
in demand for wood products (especially coniferous
species such as radiata pine and spruce) weakening
purchasing.
The furniture and home decoration industry is
experiencing a low level of activity. Overall consumption
is weak, further suppressing the demand for wood
products.
Significant decline in China’s log imports from major
suppliers
Log imports from New Zealand, the largest supplier,
decreased by 7% in the first quarter reflecting the dual
pressures of weak demand and high price on its main
product, radiata pine.
China’s log imports from the second-largest source
country, Papua New Guinea, declined by 70% in February
2026.
The volume of imports of US logs has dropped by 56%
year-on-year, becoming one of the biggest factors behind
the overall decline. China's imports of logs from the
Solomon Islands decreased by 33% from the same period
of 2025.
Although China’s log imports from some countries such as
Japan and Latvia saw growth by 11% and 14%
respectively, the increase was not sufficient to offset the
decline in traditional major shippers.
Macro and policy factors
The Spring Festival in February 2026, when factories
close, disrupted the logistics and procurement schedules
resulting in a 31% drop in the volume of logs traded,
becoming the biggest drag on the first quarter of 2026
trends.
Maritime transportation and port scheduling adjustments.
Disruptions in international supply chains affect delivery
schedules.
Domestic inventory reduction strategy
Processing enterprises are controlling their inventory and
have reduced large-scale purchasing.
In summary, in the first quarter of 2026 China's log
imports decreased by 11% year-on-year, which was the
result of the combined effect of weak demand and
contraction in supply. Moreover, a pattern of decreasing
availability and firm prices has begun to emerge.
Decline in log imports from New Zealand
New Zealand was the largest supplier of logs to China in
the first quarter of 2026. China’s log imports from New
Zealand fell 7% to 3.886 million cubic metres valued at
US$445 million, down 13% over the same period of 2025.
The average CIF price for China’s log imports from New
Zealand fell 11% to US$115 per cubic metre.
China’s log imports from New Zealand accounted for 54%
of the total log import volume.
The main reasons for the decline in China’s log imports
from New Zealand were:
Weak domestic demand
The real estate sector in China remains sluggish at present.
China's real estate investment has decreased by more than
10% year-on-year in 2025 with a reduction in new housing
construction which directly dampens the demand for
construction wood.
The data for the first quarter of 2026 shows that the
downstream industries such as construction and furniture
have reduced in the face of weak demand.
The pace of infrastructure activity has slowed down in
China. Government-led infrastructure projects have not
progressed as expected further suppressing the demand for
softwoods (especially radiata pine).
Supply-side cost increases and capacity constraints
Rising fuel prices have driven up transportation costs. The
geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has driven up
production and transport costs in New Zealand. It has been
estimated that harvesting, milling and transporting one
tonne of logs requires 12 litres of diesel for which the cost
has risen by 25%.
Limited logging and logistics. In early 2026, heavy rainfall
in New Zealand’s North Island damaged infrastructure,
affecting the transportation of logs. Logging conditions
became more restrictive in the autumn.
Trade Structure and Market Adjustment
The government of New Zealand is promoting the
transformation of the forestry sector away from log
exports to added value processing. It plans to increase
domestic wood processing by 25% by 2030 and this may
reduce log exports.
Diversifying export markets
New Zealand is actively exploring emerging markets such
as India. Its exports to India have been increasing and will
rise further as the India/NZ FTA is implemented. (see
page 9)
Renminbi exchange rate and trade costs
Fluctuations in energy prices, rising freight costs and a
weakening currency have weakened the price
competitiveness of New Zealand logs in the Chinese
market.
The decline in China's imports of logs from New Zealand
logs in the first quarter 2026 was not only caused by the
short-term impacts of domestic demand contraction and
rising international supply costs but also reflected the
medium and long-term trends of New Zealand's forestry
strategic transformation and the restructuring of the global
log supply chain.
Log imports from Germany continue to decline
Log imports from Germany continue to decline and
dropped 60% to 88,693 cubic metres in the first quarter of
2026. Germany's log volume shipment ranking dropped
from 8th in the first quarter of 2025 to 11th in the first
quarter of 2026.
The clearing of damaged logs has decreased sharply. The
main softwood log species in Germany, such as spruce and
pine, have long been affected by pests (such as bark
beetles) and extreme drought resulting in a large amount
of damaged forests. Logs from such forests previously
accounted for over 50% of Germany's annual log harvest
and exports and were a key buffer in stabilising prices.
Now, these forests have been cleared.
The German Wood Industry Federation has defined the
current situation in the country as one of structural timber
shortage. Sawmills in many areas have empty storage
facilities and deliveries are far lower than the required
which is undermining the survival of small and medium-
sized enterprises.
Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the
fluctuation in construction demand in Europe Germany
has shifted to prioritising domestic and intra-EU demand
and has little left for export.
Price surge suppresses China's imports
The price of imported logs from Germany has reached an
all-time high. The average price of spruce and pine logs in
Germany rose significantly year-on-year in the first
quarter of 2026 and the average price of softwood logs
exceeded the historical peak.
In the first two months of 2026, China's imports of logs
from Germany decreased by 60% year-on-year but the
average price rose by 26% year-on-year.
Weak Demand in the Chinese domestic market
The real estate sector in China continues to cool. The
reduction in new housing construction and the decline in
second-hand property transactions have led to sluggish
demand for construction timber, particularly affecting the
import of softwood logs, such as fir and spruce.
Trade Policies and Geopolitical Factors
Some Eastern European countries (such as Poland) have
implemented policies favoring local processing of logs
thereby indirectly reducing the total amount of logs that
can be exported to China.
In conclusion, China's imports of logs from Germany have
fallen. This was the result of a combination of factors
including the German supply crisis, high prices, weak
Chinese demand and the restructuring of the global supply
chain.
It is expected that this trend will not be reversed in the
short term and Chinese timber enterprises are accelerating
the diversification of their procurement channels.
Decline in tropical log imports
The top two suppliers of tropical logs imports in the first
quarter of 2026 were Papua New Guinea (45%) and
Solomon Islands (23%). 68% of China’s tropical log
imports were from these two countries in the first quarter
of 2026.
China’s tropical log imports from the top two suppliers,
Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands fell 1% and 33%
respectively which directly resulted in a decline in the total
volume of China’s tropical log imports (- 13% to 1.061
million cubic metes in the first quarter of 2026).
China’s tropical log imports from Cameroon in the first
quarter 2026 also dropped (-25%) over the same period of
2025.
In contrast, China's tropical log imports from the Republic
of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central
African Republic Suriname, Ecuador and Bolivia rose.
China’s tropical log imports from Tanzania surged in the
first quarter of 2026.
The main reasons for the decrease in China’s tropical log
imports in the first quarter of 2026 were:.
Policy adjustments by major suppliers
Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a policy to ban on log
exports. PNG officially launched a ban on log exports in
2026 and shifted to wood processing.
Although it may be implemented gradually with
exemption clauses, this policy has significantly impacted
supply expectations resulting in a sharp decline in China's
log imports from PNG. In 2025, PNG's log exports to
China dropped to 1.6 million cubic metres, a new low over
the past decade.
Export fluctuations in African countries such as Cameroon
In the first quarter of 2026, China imported approximately
44,000 cubic metres of logs from Cameroon, a year-on-
year decrease of 25%. Among this, the import volume in
February 2026 plummeted by 75% year-on-year. Although
there was a short-term surge in January subsequent
demand was over-extended, resulting in a downward trend
for the entire year.
Changes in supply, demand and price structures
The foundation for a recovery in domestic downstream
demand in China is not yet solid. Although there was a
frenzied import wave in 2023-2024, the demand in
downstream industries such as furniture and building
materials failed to recover in the first quarter of 2026
leading to a cautious approach in purchasing logs,
especially during February and March 2026.
Price increase - availability decrease
Although import volumes have decreased the average
import unit price has been rising.
For instance, in the first quarter of 2026 the average price
of tropical logs increased slightly year-on-year, the
average export price from Cameroon to China rose by
12% and the average price in Okoume from Gabon
increased by 26%.
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