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German timber exports to China
fall in January-August
From January to August this year, the export of wood from Germany to China decreased by 25.7% year-on-year, totaling 3.349 million m3. The value decreased by 41.8% year-on-year, totaling 3.92 billion yuan. The number of logs decreased by 33% year-on-year, totaling 2.74 million m3. The number of sawn timber increased by 53.8% year-on-year, totaling 600000 m3.
From the import data of the past five years, it can be seen that from 2020 to 2021, Germany's timber exports to China began a "surge" state, and even in 2021, the proportion of log exports reached 95%. It was not until 2022 that the surge trend gradually disappeared.
In August of this year, Germany's timber exports to China continued to set new records, with only 212000 m3. At present, the domestic logging industry in Germany has not yet recovered to the level at the beginning of the year. It is expected that Germany will maintain low volume exports to the Chinese market in the fourth quarter of 2023.
From a price perspective, from January to August this year, the average import price of German wood was about 1248 yuan/m3, it is the highest level in the same period of the past 5 years. The average import price of beech in August was about 2212 yuan/m3, it has increased by 16% month on month. According to previous year's price trends, there is still room for an increase of around 150-300 yuan for German beech in the fourth quarter.
In addition, after the Russia Ukraine dispute, Germany replaced Russia as one of the main timber suppliers to the European Union. This also means that even after the recovery of logging in Germany's timber industry in 2024, its timber exports to China will not experience another "surge", and the overall price change will not be too significant.กก