The U.S. Foreign Ag Service (FAS) recently published the June
2025 monthly export data for U.S. agricultural goods, which
includes hardwood logs and hardwood lumber. Here’s a short
summary and our observations.
Hardwood Logs
While cumulative, year-to-date, 2025 U.S. hardwood log export
volumes are down 11% compared to 2024, June’s monthly volume is
down 12% vs. May (see below), illustrating that our hardwood log
exports still haven’t fully recovered from the contentious trade
negotiations of early 2025, which resulted in reduced Canadian
purchases and China’s suspension of U.S. log processing. Readers
will notice the sharp increase in monthly purchases by Vietnam
(see further below). This June’s average unit price of U.S.
hardwood log exports was down 9% compared to May, and down 7%
vs. June of 2024. We expect monthly hardwood log export volumes
to remain near current levels throughout the remainder of 2025,
on slightly reduced monthly activity from Canada, Asia, and
Europe, at least in the near-term.
Hardwood Lumber
Year-to-date, 2025 U.S. hardwood lumber export volumes are down
10% compared to 2024. But, June’s monthly volume is up 27%
compared to May (see below), highlighting the asymmetric impact
of China’s suspension of U.S. log processing. Additionally, this
June’s average unit price of U.S. hardwood lumber exports was up
4% compared to May, and up 5% vs. June of 2024. Looking ahead,
we expect monthly hardwood lumber export volumes to increase
each month throughout the remainder of 2025 and likely surpass
2024 full-year volumes by year-end.
Closing Thoughts, Domestic Demand, and Bright Spots
Barring further trade friction or additional global conflict, we
expect some near-term upward price pressure driven by
inventory-replenishment needs. In the medium-term, upward
hardwood lumber price movements will face some pressure from
slow growth in domestic single-family housing starts (see
directly below). Meanwhile, U.S. employment has shown incredible
resilience in the wake of 2022 and 2023’s increases in the Fed
Funds Effective Rate – especially when compared to equivalent
historic rate hikes .
Source: foreconinc.com
