China remains one of the world's major importers of softwood logs and lumber, but its softwood sawlog imports have declined significantly in recent years. According to ResourceWise's Wood Market Prices (WMP), China's softwood sawlog import volumes in 2025 were less than half their 2021 peak and were down 17% year-over-year.

The decline reflects both weaker demand and changes in global supply. While there are forecasts for improvement in China's construction market in 2026 or 2027, the WMP report indicates there is limited evidence that this will lead to a rapid or substantial increase in sawlog imports.

Construction Demand Has Weakened
The main factor behind the decline has been reduced demand from China's construction sector. The country's real estate crisis began after several major developers collapsed in 2021. This reduced demand for construction timber over the following years.

Some forecasts suggest China's construction market may begin to improve this year or next, supported by infrastructure spending and urban renewal. However, any recovery is expected to be gradual. A stronger construction market could support higher timber demand, but import volumes are unlikely to return quickly to the levels seen in 2021.

Supply Sources Have Shifted
Supply-side issues have also affected China's softwood sawlog imports. Russia's log export ban, reduced supply from Germany following spruce bark beetle damage, and China's temporary ban in 2025 on US log imports all changed the flow of logs into China.

New Zealand is China's largest supplier of softwood sawlogs. In 2025, it supplied more than 75% of China's total softwood sawlog imports. Canada was the second-largest supplier. China has accounted for around 85% of New Zealand's softwood sawlog exports between 2017 and 2025, rising to more than 90% in the past two years, according to the WMP report.

However, New Zealand's export volumes may decline in the coming years as planted radiata pine forests reach maturity and harvest volumes fall. This could affect future availability and pricing for China's sawlog imports.

Engineered Wood Products May Influence Future Demand
China is also increasing its use of engineered wood products, including cross-laminated timber and laminated veneer lumber. These products are supported in part by domestic green construction policies and the development of local manufacturing capacity.

This shift may influence future demand for imported sawlogs. Many engineered wood producers in China use a mix of domestic plantation wood and imported logs, but changes in product use and supply costs could affect how much imported material is needed.

Overall, China's softwood sawlog import market remains shaped by weaker construction demand, changing supplier availability, and evolving wood product use. While construction activity may improve, current conditions do not point to a fast return to peak import levels.

Source: resourcewise.com