In the first half of the year, China’s timber imports fell by 8% year-over-year, with log and sawn timber showing distinctly divergent trends; in June, imports rebounded strongly to reach a new high for the year. Exports from traditional supplier countries generally contracted, while the African market showed a significant recovery; however, demand in the second half of the year remains uncertain.
 
Customs data shows that from January through June of this year, China imported a total of 26.534 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber, down 8% year-over-year. Of this total, log imports amounted to 15.876 million cubic meters, down 5.4% year-over-year, while sawn timber imports totaled 10.658 million cubic meters, marking a decline of 11.4%.

Looking at quarterly trends, total timber imports in the first quarter were 12.18 million cubic meters, down 12.4% year-over-year. Moving into the second quarter, imports in April totaled 4.865 million cubic meters, down 6.8% year-over-year but up 4% month-over-month; in May, imports fell to 4.402 million cubic meters, dragged down by weak demand; and in June, they rebounded to 5.086 million cubic meters. In response, industry experts generally believe that downstream demand may have bottomed out in the first quarter.

It is worth noting that China’s timber imports rebounded strongly in June, reaching a new high for the year with a month-over-month increase of 15.5% and a year-over-year increase of 7.5%. This record-high import volume was primarily driven by the log category. Data shows that log imports in June rose 11.1% year-over-year and 21.9% month-over-month; sawn timber imports saw a slight year-over-year increase of 2% and a month-over-month increase of 6.6%, with both categories reaching their peak import levels for the year.

Segment Divergence: Log Prices Rebound, Lumber Under Pressure

The most notable feature of the first half of the year was the divergence in trends between logs and sawn lumber: the cumulative decline in log prices narrowed to 5.4%, while sawn lumber prices fell by 11.4%. In terms of average prices, the average price of logs rose 4.7% year-over-year in the first half of the year, while the average price of sawn lumber increased by 11.5%. The upward price trend significantly curbed domestic imports of sawn lumber.

The divergence at the timber species level was equally pronounced. In the first half of the year, imports of coniferous logs totaled 11.616 million cubic meters, down 5.6% year-over-year; imports of hardwood logs totaled 4.261 million cubic meters, down 5%. Imports of coniferous lumber plummeted by 20.2% in the first half of the year, while imports of hardwood lumber saw a slight year-over-year increase of 2%, indicating that market demand for high-end hardwoods remains robust.

Supply Landscape: Contraction Among Traditional Major Suppliers

Exports to China from traditional supplier countries are generally under pressure. New Zealand remains China’s largest supplier of logs, with exports to China totaling 9.101 million cubic meters in the first half of the year, down 3.1% year-over-year. Russia, as the largest supplier of sawn lumber, exported 4.46 million cubic meters of sawn lumber to China in the first half of the year, out of a total export volume of 5.10 million cubic meters—representing year-over-year declines of 21.8% and 21.4%, respectively. Germany, a major European timber supplier to China, saw its exports to China plummet by 51.8% year-over-year in the first half of the year and has fallen out of the top ten.

Notably, due to tariff barriers on softwood from the U.S. and Canada, Canadian lumber has increasingly been redirected to the Chinese market, with exports to China rising 10.8% year-over-year in the first half of the year. The African market has also shown a strong recovery: in the first half of the year, exports from the Republic of the Congo to China increased by 21.4% year-over-year; during the same period, exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic to China rose by 76.7% and 43.2% year-over-year, respectively.




Overall, China’s timber imports continued to decline in volume during the first half of the year. In addition to weak domestic demand, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven up shipping costs, while fluctuations in energy prices have intensified cost pressures in logging, transportation, and manufacturing—all of which have collectively pushed up logistics and production costs for timber imports.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the demand side remains the greatest source of uncertainty. According to analyses by multiple institutions, demand in the second half may follow a divergent trend, starting low and stabilizing later. Given that the domestic real estate market remains in a period of adjustment, the pattern of continued demand contraction is unlikely to reverse in the short term, leaving limited room for an overall recovery in timber imports.