In brief: Prices for wood pellets have risen across Europe ahead of the 2026/27 heating season: the reasons include a decline in the volume of sawmill byproducts, a loss of imports from the East, and a surge in early-season purchases.

The same pattern is repeating itself from Warsaw to Sarajevo: manufacturers are struggling to find sawdust and wood chips, retail prices have skyrocketed compared to manufacturer prices, and buyers who waited until August are paying significantly more than those who ordered fuel in the spring.

Poland: Shortages, Panic Buying, and Fraud

The crisis has hit Poland the hardest. Over the summer, the price of a metric ton of pellets rose to 2,000–2,500 zlotys, and the shortage became so severe that it sparked open outrage among the population. Industry organizations and the Ministry of Climate cite a single cause: a shortage of raw materials. A decline in the woodworking industry—particularly in the furniture sector—has reduced the volume of sawdust reaching pellet plants, while administrative restrictions on logging in several regions have limited the supply of roundwood.

Another pillar that has collapsed is imports from Belarus: the ban on importing sawdust and pellets from Belarus has disrupted the raw material balance. Previously, Poland served as a major hub for Belarusian biofuel, consuming some of it itself and reselling the rest; Warsaw has not found an alternative supplier in the EU at a comparable price. The frenzy has led to fraud: sellers are offering pellets on social media at last year’s prices, taking prepayments, and then deleting their accounts. Households that replaced their coal stoves with pellet boilers under government “green” programs have proven to be the most vulnerable, as they now have no alternative fuel source.

Germany: the sharpest increase since 2023

In Germany, pellets are more expensive than at any time since the beginning of 2023: an increase of about 10 percent in a single month starting in June and about 40 percent over the past year. Traders describe prices per metric ton as being on a steep upward trajectory. The German Pellet Institute continues to emphasize the significant price advantage of pellets over heating fuel and natural gas, but acknowledges that the shortage of sawmill byproducts—caused by a weak construction market—has been compounded by increases in the minimum wage and the cost of diesel fuel. Residential construction is considered the most problematic segment: building permits do not automatically translate into orders, so less wood is passing through sawmills.

The Institute advises against delaying purchases for too long, suggesting that the cheaper summer window may close sooner than usual. Consumer advocates recommend monitoring the market and ordering in advance rather than under pressure when inventory is low, choosing local suppliers whose supply chain can be verified, and being wary of fake online stores.

The environmental debate remains open. Pellet consumption increased significantly between 2020 and 2025, although the pace of new pellet boiler installations slowed considerably after 2023: this market is sensitive to changes in support programs. Critics point out that the climate neutrality of wood is a political interpretation of standards, and that wood has a greater positive impact on the climate when it is permanently incorporated into products rather than burned. Of the total volume of German sawmill byproducts, approximately half is used in other materials, while about 3.5 million metric tons are converted into pellets. In terms of megajoules, pellets rank between natural gas and lignite when burned. The overwhelming recommendation from experts is to continue using existing pellet boilers until the end of their service life and to consider heat pumps for new installations.

Estonia: Competition with Heating Plants

In Estonia, wood chips are a bottleneck, and pellet producers are competing directly with heating plants that burn the same raw material. Graanul Invest, Europe’s largest pellet producer, confirms the shortage, with competition driving prices upward. Mart Liivak, head of Harju Puu, estimates the price at about 400 euros per metric ton and expects further increases, noting that production is energy-intensive and electricity prices may rise in the winter.

Dependence on wood is significant: last year, wood chips accounted for nearly two-thirds of the fuel used in Estonia’s district heating system. The Baltic states and Finland have halted purchases of Russian pellets after 2022. Last winter, demand rose and prices increased by 25 percent; this year’s rush has exacerbated the shortage in neighboring Latvia, where in mid-July sellers imposed a limit of two packages per customer and where a ton cost about 220 euros a year ago.

Latvia: A Different Perspective on the Situation

Latvian producers are currently asking for 300–330 euros per metric ton, including VAT, but the industry expects prices to stabilize or decline over the course of the month. Didzis Paleis of the LATbio biomass association compares the current mood to the period following the 2022 crisis, when people bought fuel for the entire winter back in the summer, and the buying spree stopped in the fall because they had already stocked up. The same thing is happening now: many buyers will not return to the market until spring, which will force traders to lower prices.

The assessment of the causes is also fundamentally different: LATbio attributes the July strain not to a shortage of wood but to scheduled maintenance, as nearly all Latvian plants shut down their equipment for two to three weeks in mid-July. Most have already returned to full capacity. Polish traders were actively replenishing their inventories at the start of summer, purchasing Latvian products in particular, but their activity is waning, which will free up volumes for the domestic market.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: One Market, Two Price Levels

According to Goran Ivanović, producers in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina are asking for approximately 580–650 convertible marks per metric ton, while in the Republika Srpska the price is 550–600. At the same time, the official registry of the Federal Ministry of Trade lists retail prices of 895 marks for Class A1 and 840 for A2, alongside entries for 619 and 620 marks. Such a discrepancy within a single official list directly indicates market imbalance.

Muhamed Gelac points out that spring and summer are traditionally the cheapest times to buy fuel and that this seasonal trend has characterized the market for the past twenty years. About 70 percent of consumers heeded the April call to buy in advance, when a metric ton cost approximately 500–550 marks. Four metric tons purchased at that time for 525 marks each came to nearly 2,100 marks; the same amount at 895 marks per metric ton costs 3,580. Firewood priced at 120–130 marks remains the main alternative, although this figure is rarely the final cost once splitting, stacking, and delivery are added. Higher wholesale gas prices in the Federation since July and electricity rates that hit high-volume electricity consumption the hardest leave almost no room to do without firewood.

The Common Denominator

The shortage is real, but it’s a shortage of byproducts, not of timber: less construction and less furniture production mean less wood chips and sawdust, and there is no cheap substitute for Russian and Belarusian materials. On top of this comes a behavioral effect described by LATbio: the fear of a shortage is driving an entire season’s worth of purchases into just two summer months, thereby creating the very price spike that buyers were trying to avoid. Whether fuel prices will drop in the fall will depend not so much on the supply of timber as on how quickly this surge subsides.