The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook points to annual supply growth of about 0.5% through 2035, below expected demand growth.

The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook forecasts annual softwood supply growth of about 0.5% through 2035, below expected demand growth, as regional constraints limit the potential for increased production.

The findings, from Håkan Ekström of Global Wood Trends and Glen O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen, are contained in a four-part market report covering North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and the global market. The reports examine potential sources of future softwood supply and the factors that could limit growth.

Softwood roundwood supply has remained broadly flat since 2000, despite continued growth in overall roundwood production. Meanwhile, demand for construction timber, packaging and biomass is expected to increase, putting further pressure on the availability and real prices of softwood logs.

The global outlook varies significantly between regions.

Softwood roundwood supply in 2025 was close to its 25-year average, following a sharp fall from its all-time high in 2021. Since 2000, North American supply has declined by almost 20%, while Europe and Russia, and the rest of the world, have each increased by about 18%.

The regions that have driven supply growth, however, face different prospects over the next decade.

A look at the five regions

The US South has the greatest potential to increase softwood roundwood supply. Timber resources remain abundant and harvesting is below biological growth, but labour shortages, infrastructure constraints and the investment required to expand production are expected to limit the pace of growth.

In Canada, several years of declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia, are expected to give way to stabilisation and modest recovery. Supply is unlikely to return to previous levels, however.

Europe faces tighter constraints. Many forests are already being harvested close to sustainable biological limits, while sustainability policies, forest protection measures and climate-related damage are restricting further growth.

The base scenario points to little overall change in European supply, with declines in Central Europe and the Baltics offset by growth elsewhere, particularly in the Nordic region.

Russia has substantial underused softwood resources, but much of this potential is unlikely to translate into additional supply. Political risks, market-access restrictions, infrastructure limitations and investment requirements are expected to keep significant volumes untapped.

In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains competitive, but the area devoted to softwood plantations has changed little over the past decade. Investment has increasingly shifted towards hardwood plantations, while investment in softwood plantations has remained broadly unchanged.

Productivity gains are expected to support modest growth in softwood supply, rather than a major expansion. In Japan and New Zealand, lower availability is largely linked to uneven age-class structures in plantations.

Trade flows set to change

Demand will remain an important driver of the market. US housing, European construction and China’s property market are expected to support sawlog demand, while greater substitution of hardwood species and recycled fibre in pulp and wood-based panels could change demand for different softwood log grades.

China could become an example of how tighter supply affects trade flows. As log availability in Asia-Pacific becomes more constrained and Chinese sawmilling costs increase, the country is likely to import more lumber instead of logs.

Climate change and geopolitical developments add further uncertainty. Insects, storms, drought and wildfire could affect forest growth and salvage harvesting, while changes in international relations could redirect trade flows.

Carbon policies are expected to have a more limited impact on commercial softwood supply.

A tighter global market

The outlook suggests that global softwood supply can continue to grow, but only modestly. The issue is not simply how much timber exists in the world’s forests, but how much can be harvested, processed and delivered competitively to the markets that need it.

As regional resources become more constrained, accessible and competitively priced softwood logs are likely to become harder to source through 2035.
  

Source: panelsfurnitureasia.com